Brisbane Housing Market Update – September 2026
September 2026 – Housing Market Update
1. Housing Market Growth
Brisbane’s housing market continued to weaken in August, with dwelling values falling by 1% over the month. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline, leaving values 2.7% lower through winter. The downturn has become broad‑based, with 91% of suburbs recording a fall in values, a sharp shift from earlier in the year when declines were concentrated in higher‑value areas. Against the backdrop of national declines, Brisbane’s trajectory reflects the broader housing cycle, but the city’s downturn is notable for its breadth and persistence. Despite these recent falls, Brisbane homeowners remain in a relatively strong equity position, with dwelling values still 64% higher than five years ago.
2. Cooling Trend Driven by Affordability & Confidence
The cooling trend in Brisbane is increasingly driven by affordability and confidence pressures. Value declines have become more evident across the lower quartile of the market, where falls of 0.9% slightly outpaced the 0.8% decline in the upper quartile. This shift highlights how affordability constraints are now weighing more evenly across all price points, eroding the resilience that lower‑priced housing previously displayed. Elevated borrowing costs and serviceability challenges continue to limit demand, while consumer confidence remains weak, leaving buyers hesitant to engage even as conditions tilt in their favour.
3. Demand Imbalance & Auction Trends
Demand in Brisbane has softened considerably, with estimated sales volumes down more than 20% compared with a year ago. Advertised stock levels have risen sharply, now sitting 51% higher than a year earlier, reflecting slower turnover and longer selling times. This accumulation of listings is occurring despite fewer new properties being brought to market, underscoring the imbalance between supply and demand. Vendor discounting has increased, and clearance rates remain subdued, reinforcing the sense of a buyer’s market. Yet, despite greater negotiating power, buyers remain cautious, with confidence undermined by affordability pressures and broader economic uncertainty.
4. Rental Market Pressure
Rental conditions in Brisbane remain tight, adding further pressure to households. Weekly rents have climbed to $700 for houses and $660 for units, with annual growth of 6.7% and 6.2% respectively. Gross rental yields stand at 3.2% for houses and 4.0% for units, reflecting the combined impact of rising rents and falling dwelling values. Vacancy rates remain low by historical standards, sustaining upward pressure on rental affordability. These dynamics mirror national trends, where rents have risen steadily and yields have lifted to their highest levels since 2019, but Brisbane’s rental market is particularly constrained, leaving tenants facing significant cost burdens.
5. Brisbane Market Momentum
Momentum in Brisbane has shifted decisively into negative territory. The city’s housing market, once buoyed by strong growth, is now experiencing consistent declines across most suburbs. The breadth of the downturn, with more than nine in ten suburbs recording value falls, highlights the depth of the current weakness. Lower‑quartile properties are now leading the declines, a sign that affordability pressures are biting hardest at the entry level of the market. Despite this, Brisbane’s longer‑term growth profile remains strong, with values still significantly higher than five years ago, providing a buffer for many homeowners even as short‑term conditions deteriorate.
6. Housing Market Outlook 2026: Headwinds & Offsetting Factors
Brisbane’s housing market is expected to remain under downward pressure as high mortgage rates, reduced borrowing capacity, and cost‑of‑living pressures continue to erode affordability. Inflation risks raise the possibility of further RBA rate hikes, while weak consumer confidence and four consecutive quarters of declining real wages make it harder for households to save deposits and transact. Population growth has normalised, removing a key source of demand. On the upside, limited new housing supply, elevated construction costs, and a still‑supportive labour market should help contain the risk of widespread arrears or distressed selling. First‑home buyer incentives may also provide some support at the affordable end. Overall, risks remain tilted to the downside, and Brisbane’s spring selling season is unlikely to be as active as in previous years given entrenched demand‑side pressures.
Disclaimer:
The information presented in this email is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered as professional advice. While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, we make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability, or availability concerning the content contained within this email. Any reliance you place on the information provided is strictly at your own risk.
Source: from Corelogic, REA Group, JP Morgan, Homefront, CNN, CommSec, and Reserve bank of Australia